Export growth fell in March. The global economy is growing at a good pace and the overall environment is better. Export growth is expected to decline in March, with exports up 10 per cent from a year ago and exports of about $1970.

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Import growth edged up. The overall CRB index fell slightly in March, to around 436 at the end of the month, up just 0.1 percent from a year earlier. Different differences in commodity prices, food, livestock, oil and other agricultural products was a higher price than the same period last year declined slightly, commodity price index rose by about 6%, industrial product price year-on-year, metals rose more than 10%. Crude oil prices were generally above $65 a barrel in March, a significant increase from last year, with the WTI, brent and OPEC oil prices rising more than 35 per cent year on year. The price of crude oil increases the import of related products. High frequency data showed that import prices of major agricultural products, such as soybeans and corn, rose, with a significant year-on-year increase of around 8% to 12%. The price of imported iron ore also rose from the previous month, but it was lower than the same period last year, with prices falling by about 20 per cent year-on-year. In terms of import volume, affected by the weakening of domestic demand, freight volume, container logistics and automobile transportation are not ideal. This year, the import policy was encouraged gradually, and the import of consumer goods increased. Imports grew by 20.2% in the same period last year, and the growth rate was higher than that of the previous year. Overall, imports are expected to rise 8 per cent in March from a year earlier, with imports of about $170 billion. The trade surplus is expected to be about $27 billion in March.

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Investment growth declined

Slower consumption growth

Investment in fixed assets slowed down. In the first two months of this year, the growth of fixed asset investment was higher than expected, the first and tertiary industries accelerated, but the growth rate of industrial investment declined, and there was no condition for continuous improvement. The csa composite steel price index, a weekly gauge, rose to 117.66 in the two weeks after the lunar New Year holiday, but fell back to 112.63 in the last two weeks, indicating a lack of demand. The growth in real estate development investment is expected to slow to about 8.5 per cent as the impact of land acquisition has weakened earlier this year. The external demand environment as a whole is better, exports are growing faster, private investment has accelerated, and manufacturing production and investment have been boosted. The growth of manufacturing investment is expected to increase slightly. However, in the current economic environment, the enthusiasm of enterprises to expand investment independently is not high, and the demand for manufacturing investment is not significantly increased, and the growth rate is about 4.5 percent. Overall, fixed asset investment is expected to grow 7.6 percent in March, down slightly from the previous two months.

Consumption growth slowed earlier this year. Since the beginning of the year consumption growth has been weak, the peak season is not strong characteristics. Commercial housing sales continued steady growth in March, the first two ten-day 30 large and medium-sized cities in China commodity property area of year-on-year growth of 40%, one of the lines, two lines, three lines city growth of 39%, 32%, 32% respectively, the three cities drop to expand. Car sales have picked up recently, with retail sales up 3.9 per cent in the first two weeks of march compared with a year earlier. The CPI is expected to fall slightly to 2.4% in March, possibly affecting nominal consumption growth. Overall, consumption growth is expected to drop slightly to about 9.6 percent in March.

PMI low rise

Industrial production has fallen back.

The increase in industrial production was slower than last month. In January and February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale reached 968.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, maintaining the momentum of rapid growth and helping industrial enterprises to carry out production. But industrial profit growth has been significantly lower than last year, and reliance on price increases has weakened industrial production. Overall, the production of heavy industry is expected to be weak, the light industry is stable, and industrial added value increased by 6.5% in March .

The manufacturing PMI rose slightly. The manufacturing PMI fell by a significant 1 percentage point as February was affected by the lunar New Year production. As seasonal factors weaken, march should pick up. Overall, the manufacturing PMI is expected to pick up in March after the Spring Festival, with a forecast of 50.5 per cent and a smaller rise.

The non-manufacturing PMI rose slightly. Although non-woven PMI fell in February, business activity expectations remained as high as 61.2 per cent, but non-manufacturing orders fell, affecting non-manufacturing PMI activity. The non-manufacturing PMI is expected to rise slightly to 54.8% in March.